Language Learning

国际资本流动悖论理论报告 (International Capital Flow Paradox Theory Presentation)

May 3, 2015

 国际投资与跨国企业管理课程 

International Investment and Transnational Enterprise Management Class 

Midterm Presentation 4/29/15


国际资本流动悖论理论

卫森,古世文,曹善君,鱼皓天,海瑞

南京大学-国际投资-国际资本流动悖论理论报告


Sam Wilson (卫森)

IMG_7971

The composition theory is a new way to look how global equilibrium reacts to a variety of shocks and structural changes, particularly a change in labor-force or the labor productivity of a country.

复合的效应理论讨论了国际平衡状态如何对各种各样的震惊与产业机构转变反应,特别是一个国家的劳动力与劳动力生产率的转变。

The composition theory postulates that a permanent increase in labor-force or labor production (also know as a labor force shock) will lead to a net capital outflow from the country, thus when the an advanced economy and a developing economy integrate, capital will from developing to developed countries in contrast to the convergence theory. However that is not to say the convergence theory is wrong, it is simply that these are competing effects, and thus the direction of capital flows depending on which effect dominates.

复合的效应理论表示,劳动力和劳动力生产率永远增加(也成为labor force shock)肯定带来从那个国家的资产外溢,因此在发达国家和发达中国家的经济市场融会时,与收敛性理论形成对比,复合的效应理论表示资产会从发展中国家流到发达国家的经济市场。但是,这并不代表收敛性理论是错误的,其实那两理论就是竞争的效应,于是资产流动的方向基于更强的理论。

So how does this work? The clearest example is between production and its demand and supply of capital. When country A fully specializes in capital-intensive goods (tech start ups, banking, etc.) that needs both labor and capital to produce you will see a net outflow of investment from country B which only specialized in labor intensive goods that only needs labor as an input.

这种理论如何起作用?最明显的例子就关于产业和资产供需的关系。国家A完全专门从事生产资本密集型的产品,国家市场将需要劳动力和资产投入,为的是产生资本密集型的产品,这个时候我们能看到从国家B的总资产流出。国家B专业生产劳动密集型产品,于是为了产生流动性的产品,国家B只把需要劳动力投入。

An industrial structure that is tilted toward capital-intensive sectors will face greater investment demands (country A), and thus a high share of output accruing to investment, at the same time generating a low share of output accruing to labor income. An industrial structure that concentrates on producing labor-intensive goods will see exactly the opposite (country B). Thus in a fully-integrated world economy, a country that experiences a labor force/productivity shock (country B) that causes its production structure to shift toward labor-intensive goods will tend to see a net capital outflow.

要是一个国家的产业结构偏向资本密集型产品自然会面对更多的投资需求(国家A),因此也有十分高的投资回报率 (基于投资),同时带来非常低的投资回报率(基于劳动力)。反过来,如果一个国家(国家B)注重生产劳动密集型的产品会适得其反。由此,在完全融为一体的全球经济市场内,当一个国家(国家B)发生了labor force shock时,国家产业会转到劳动密集型的产品,然后很有可能看到总资产流出。

How does this work on a country level? Labor shock/Production shock in country b->creates a more favorable investment/labor ratio-> comparative advantage in labor, also country A expands its capital-intensive sectors and export their goods in response to a labor force/productivity boom in country B-> comparative advantage in investment sectors. This specialization the two countries leads to a net outflow of capital from country b (developing) to country a (developed).

在国家层面看来,这种理论如何起作用?国家B发生了劳动力和劳动力生产率的永远增加-> 创造了更宽松的劳动力和资产的比率->国家B获得了关于劳动力的比较优势。同时国家A让他们资本密集型产业拓宽,也把资本密集型产品出口到国家B,回应国家B的labor shock->国家A获得了关于资产的比较优势。那两个国家的专业化导致从国家B(发展中国家)到国家A(发达国家)的总资产流出。

How does this work on an individual level? Labor shock/Production shock in country b-> more young people (savers) working-> more aggregate savings in country b-> country b will allocate savings based on demand and returns, since  because young developing countries have low investment demands/returns->country b will see a net outflow of investment to country A (developed).

在个人层面看来,这种理论如何起作用的?国家B发生了劳动力和劳动力生产率的永远增加->更多年轻人(挣钱者)工作->国家B有更多的储蓄总量->国家B会按供需和回报率利用储蓄总量。于是,发展中国家有十分小的投资需求和很低的回报率,很可能看到国家B总资产流到国家A。

Greg Fish (鱼皓天)

IMG_7972

Convergence Effect

Two of the most important phenomena in the global economy have been trade and financial integration and rapid labor force/productivity growth in emerging markets.

全球经济中最重要的两个现象是贸易和金融一体化跟在新兴市场的快速劳动力/生产率的增长。

The standard open-economy models predict a net capital inflow from developed countries into developing countries (where the effective capital-labor ratio is lower). The flow of capital is caused by developing countries having a lower capital to labor ratio, meaning that investors can get “more bang for their buck.”

传统开放型经济的车型预测资金从发达国家流入发展中国家(比较低的资本-劳动比率)。原因在于比较低的资本-劳动比率让投资者更划算。

The convergence effect and the composition effect can become competing, and the direction of capital flow depends on which one of the two effects dominates.

收敛效果和复合效果之间可以发生竞争,并且资本流动的方向取决于哪一个站主导地位。

 

Henry (海瑞)

IMG_7973

场景1(整合中国,印度和前苏联):国家最初被认为是自给自足的稳定状态。在第一期间,对应于1990年,竟然打开了两个地区贸易和金融资本流动。转型的路径是根据计算, 附件第二节描述算法。由一个最初的低生产率和较低的资本劳动比,其劳动密集型商品的价格(1)是自给自足低于国际价格(见附件三)。因此,从好的发达国家,1增加开盘时价格的影响达贸易。如表2所示,在一个非贸易部门的情况下,这一价格在第一个时期增加了百分之9.48,而资本密集型的价格百分之5.86良好的瀑布。另一方面,贸易一体化允许排看在对影响劳动密集型商品,在价格上涨的价格降低资本密集型货物。因此,具有比较优势的地区劳动是劳动密集型产品和经营一个大的初始电流的帐户 GDP的百分之17.07盈余,随后恢复到平衡后的2020。行在国内生产总值的百分之3.73,初始的经常账户赤字。对非贸易部门的掺入降低了贸易和专业化的影响在不改变结果定性的资本流动。上升在E区工资推动了非流通股的价格,导致真正的升值,而相反的情况发生在排。这一结果与巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应虽然房升值在教唆发展中经济体在这种情况下是由全球化带来的,而不是通过对贸易部门的生产率增长较快。所有部门的扩张,包括非贸易部门,需要发达国家投资的储蓄在国内,从而减少资金的释放量行。平均,发达国家运行国内生产总值百分之6.09的活期账户1990–2010之间,和排百分之1.35的国内生产总值平均赤字,相对于平均盈余国内生产总值的百分之3.15,−占国内生产总值的百分之0.45,分别为,在数据(表2)。

    Alex Cho (曹善君)

IMG_7970

在发展中国家有效劳动力增长

 定量分析

发展中国家之所以积累资本是为了减少在劳动生产冲击时的国家之间的资本和劳动比例差异,由此,导致资本从发展中国家流出。此外,按照该图表,我们可以看到,在每一个时期发展中国家往往拥有巨额账户赤字,反而,发达国家则显示为资本盈余。

效应的影响下

在收敛效应的影响(convergence theory)下,资本流动方向趋于流向发展中国家,因为更多的资本收益率具有提高生产率的潜力,而这正是符合标准模型的预测,就是新兴国家的迅速增长往往会产生大量的资本。总的来说,资本贫穷的发展中国家与资本雄厚的发达经济体之间的结合,可视为全球失衡最重要的解释因素,而不是在劳动力生产率和增长率的差异。

OLG(代际交叠模型)与无线地平线的模型进行对比

在两个模型下,劳动与生产的震动对经济的影响效应产生相同的结果,因此,专业化模式的冲击,同时也是一致。为此,复合效应—在该国的资本需求,已将其生产迈向更多的资本密集型行业,仍然具有势力确定资本流动的方向。投资需求在这两个模型下是相似的,然而,差异在于储蓄倾向的不同,于是,影响到国家与积极的劳动力生产率冲击可实现的资金量。基于代际交叠模型(OLG)的框架,一个国家在经济繁荣时期之集体储蓄,例如,借贷约束,可以提高资本净流出远离国数量。

复合效优势

在典型的模式下,在收敛效应和复合效应是相互竞争的时候,资本的流动方向取决于复合效应占主导地位。当复合效应占主导地位时,专业化的模式是显而易见的,并且,专业化程度非常依赖要素强度的跨部门的差异,推而广之,复合效应占主导地位的时候,恰恰是当要素强度变得更不同。

Steven Gilbert(古世文)

IMG_7969

As my classmates have stated, when the composition effect dominates, capital will flow from a country with a low capital/labor ratio to a country that specializes in capital-intensive products and services. To view how this applies to current situations, I will use China and America as examples. China specializes in labor intensive goods, and the US is a capital-intensive economy.

正如我的同学们所说,当结构效应占主导地位的时候,资本从低资本劳动比率的国家流到资本密集型的国家。为了说明这个理论怎么应用于当前的情况,我以中国和美国为例子。中国以劳动密集型产业为主,而美国以资本密集型产业为主。

By looking at each country’s current account, we can get a better understanding of exactly how money flows into China and then back into the US. An account surplus means that a country invests more abroad than it does domestically, while an account deficit means that a country borrows more than the amount of goods that they export abroad.

通过观察各国的经常账户,我们可以更好了解资本如何流入中国以后回到美国。经常账户盈余意味着一个国家对外投资多于本国投资,而经常账户赤字意味着一个国家借的资本大于出口的货物价值。

Since 2000, China has primarily ran an account surplus, dipping into a small account deficit only twice. Since the same time, the US has ran an account deficit. China has an account surplus because it has many resources to export to the world, and the amount of their exports are greater than the capital they require. It is a net lender. Because of this, they choose to invest their money in a country that demands capital: the US. The US is a net borrower. They borrow now to invest for future gains. From the composition theory, we can see a net lender means labor-intensive country, and net borrower means capital-intensive country.

从2000年至今,中国基本处于经常账户盈余的状态,只有两次出现经常账户赤字的情况。同时,美国一直处于经常账户赤字的状态。中国之所以经常账户盈余,是因为它有这么多资源出口到其他国家,并且其出口总额超过流入的资本总额。它是一个出借者。因此,它选择把钱投到需求资本的国家——美国。美国是一个借用者。它现在借钱来投资未来的收益。通过结构效应理论,我们知道出借者意味着劳动密集型的国家,借用者意味着资本密集型的国家。

As you can see in the above graphs, as the US entered into its economic recession, it was borrowing in increasingly large amounts. The US was investing into a growing housing martketbubble, a capital intensive market, China was feeding that capital demand by lending increasingly large amounts. Once the economic crisis hit, real estate investment valuations plummeted and as you can see in the graph, so did the lending and borrowing amounts between the US. The US started investing in more  stable, labor-intensive sectors, and therefore its capital structure tendencies change for the time being.

从这些图表中可以看出,随着美国陷入经济危机,它借钱的数量越来越多。一方面,美国正在投资一个不断增长的房地产泡沫,另一方面,中国通过放宽国际贷款的办法,满足美国的资本需求。当美国的房地产泡沫破裂以后,房地产的投资价值下降了。同时从图表中可以看出,美国向中国的借款数量也减少了。经济危机发生以后,美国的开始投资更稳定、劳动更加密集的产业部门。

Another way to look at this phenomenon is through China’s purchase of US debt.China currently owns $1.2 billion of US treasuries and bonds, which means it is also able to maintain its labor-intensive sectors through management of its exchange rate. By flooding the market with the rmb, it effectively underprices the rmb. This currency depreciation effectively places a higher value on labor, establishes a higher capital-labor ratio, and maintains China’s specialization in labor-intensive sectors.

另一个来观察结构效应的现象的办法是观察中美之间的债务收购行为。现在中国拥有的美国债券与国库券的总额大于12亿美元,这表示通过人民币汇率的管理,中国维持着劳动密集型的产业。它采取充斥市场的策略来保证人民币的计价过低。人民币的货币贬值带来一个更高的劳动力价值,并创造更低资本劳动比率,也保障中国以劳动密集型产业为主。

From these explanations, we understand that as countries become more specialized in capital-intensive industries and become net borrowers, they overtime run greater current account deficits.

从这些例子来看,我们了解到当国家的产业变得更加资本密集,并且大量借入国际资本时,这些国家通常会出现严重的经常账户赤字。

Along with the rise of globalization, international commodity trade and financial capital flows becoming increasingly intertwined, however these two have only been analyzed separately. From this new perspective, we can see that coexisting with the convergence theory, capital flows towards countries that are more specialized in labor-intensive sectors, and that a fast labor-force growth and productivity rates can then lead to capital flows away from the country. The composition theory relies heavily on the free flow of goods and capital among countries, so as the world moves towards interdependence, we need to use a model that better represents this.

随着国际化的逐渐展开,国际商品贸易与金融资本流动之间的关系变得更加密切,然而这两个因素一直只被分开分析。换个角度来看,按照收敛理论,资本流向以劳动密集型产业为主的国家,而劳动力增长与生产效率提高使得资本流出国家。结构效应理论依靠资本与货物的自由流动,所以随着国家相互依赖的趋势,我们需要开始用一个更有代表性的模型。

You Might Also Like